Trends and Predictions for 2010

by Ken Denman, Openwave CEO

‘Tis the season of predictions. But rather than peer into a crystal ball or call a psychic, we decided to ask some of our resident industry experts to give some very educated guesses as to the biggest trends of the new decade. Please, no wagering.

1. The data overload that has already begun to effect mobile operators will intensify in 2010. The proliferation of data-hungry mobile devices is accelerating the rate at which mobile traffic is increasing putting the 1EB (Exabyte) per month mark about four years away. For comparison's sake, it took almost eight years for fixed line traffic to achieve the same growth. In other words, operators are facing the prospect of seeing their traffic grow faster than the rate at which they can add capacity.

2. Streaming video on mobile devices will continue to grow in 2010, soon becoming the dominant form of data traffic. Conservative estimates indicate that video will comprise 75% of all mobile network traffic within the next couple years. We also expect to see announcements around advances in mobile video technology and there will also be traction around mobile television.

3. There will be increased debate between mobile operators and content providers around how the broadband business model is not sustainable in wireless. The wired world has taught us all some bad habits that will not translate into the wireless world. Content provides have dug in their heels about paying the operator to host content on operator networks, but someone besides the mobile operator will need to help pick up the tab.

4. Following from Prediction 3, mobile operators will announce tiered pricing and charge for certain content. With recent announcements from AT&T about tighter control over data usage, there will be a move towards tiered pricing models for subscribers. Some operators may charge more for certain content similar to the MSOs charging customers for premium content/channels.

5. 2010 will be the year of location-based offerings. Location will become the “oxygen” for mobile apps and content, making capabilities such as streaming location and location-based mobile advertising essential for operators to differentiate themselves from the competition.

And to finish them off, here are four more trends that we are less certain about, but will be interesting to keep an eye on nonetheless:

• Data outages will increase across all parts of the world.
• The phrase "superphones" as invented by Google will stick.
• WiMAX services will pleasantly surprise us with their robustness and quality.
• Someone will solve the Voice over LTE conundrum.